| 信用债与利率债调整的三维对比。 |
Three-dimensional comparison of adjustments of credit bonds and interest rate bonds. |
| 1.信用债市场调整原因。 |
1. The causes of credit bond market adjustment. |
| 历次信用债市场的调整原因可归为两大类：一类是由基本面好转以及货币政策趋紧导致的调整，比如13年的“钱荒”、10年央行加息等。 |
The causes of credit bond market adjustment can be classified into two categories: The first is adjustment caused by improving fundamentals and tighter monetary policies, such as the credit crunch in 2013 and interest rate hike in 2010. |
| 另一类是信用风险主导的调整。 |
The second is adjustment driven by credit risk. |
| 如11年下半年城投债的违约、15年底山水违约以及16年3、4月份违约事件的集中爆发。 |
Such as quasi-municipal bond default in 2H2011, default of Shandong Cement bond in late 2015 and outbreak of defaults in March and April in 2016. |
| 一些意外事件也会对债市形成冲击，如14年末中债登“黑天鹅”事件。 |
Some unexpected events also brought about some impact on the bond market, such as the unexpected raising of repurchase collateral requirement for credit bonds in late 2014 by CSDC. |
| 2.信用债调整往往滞后于利率债。 |
2. Credit bond adjustment often lags behind interest rate bond. |
| 通常情况下，利率债流动性较强，当债市面临流动性压力时，一般先于信用债进行调整，调整到位的时点也同样领先1-3周左右。 |
Under normal circumstances, interest rate bonds have better liquidity, and when the bond market is facing liquidity pressure, they generally see earlier adjustment than credit bonds, and the time adjustment completes is also about 1-3 weeks ahead. |
| 由信用风险主导的债市调整中，信用债和利率债的走势比较一致，调整到位时点也相差较少。 |
For a bond market adjustment dominated by credit risk, credit bonds and interest rate bonds’ movements are relatively consistent and the time adjustments complete are also close. |
| 3.信用债调整更具有弹性。 |
3. Credit bonds adjustment has higher Beta. |
| 在利率上行期，信用债往往比利率债调整幅度大；相应的，在利率回落期，信用债下行幅度也更大。 |
In a rising interest rate cycle, credit bonds often see sharper adjustment than interest rate bonds; accordingly, when interest rates fall, credit bonds will also fall deeper. |
| 4.信用债交易量随利率波动。 |
4. Credit bonds trading volume moves with interest rate fluctuation. |
| 债券交易量与收益率走势有较高相关性，在收益率下行阶段，债券市场交易放量，而在收益率上行阶段，交易量随之萎缩。 |
Bond trading volume and yield trends have relatively high correlation, and in a downward yield movement, bond market trading volume will surge, while in a upward yield movement, trading volume will shrink. |
| 分券种来看，中票、短融交易量与收益率走势高度相关，尤其是短融；企业债和公司债在大趋势上也是一致的，但波动不明显。 |
From a bond type perspective, trading volume and yield trends of MTNs and SCPs are highly correlated, especially SCPs; enterprise bonds and corporate bonds are also consistent in the general trend, but the volatility is less obvious. |
