| There are two basic concepts in finance: time-value of money and uncertainty about expectations. |
Finansta iki basit anlam vardir: zaman - para degeri ve emin olamadiginiz beklentiler. |
| The two concepts are the core of financial valuations, including futures contracts. |
Bu iki anlam iceriginde gelecek kontratlari bulunan finansal degerlendirmenin bazini olusturur, |
| cost-of-carry model is the most widely accepted and used for pricing futures contract |
Tasima ucreti modeli en cok kabul edilendir ve gelecek kontratlarinin fiyatlanmasinda kullanilir. |
| Cost-of-carry Model |
Tasima ucreti modeli |
| Cost-of-carry model is an arbitrage-free pricing model. |
Tasima ucreti arbitraj - ucretsi fiyalama modelidir. |
| Its central theme is that futures contract is so priced as to preclude arbitrage profit. |
Bunin merkez temasi gelecek kontratinin arbitraj karini icermek uzere fiyatlandirilmasindadir. |
| In other words, investors will be indifferent to spot and futures market to execute their buying and selling of underlying asset because the prices they obtain are effectively the same. |
Baska bir deyimle, yatiricilar icin servetin alt bedelinin alim satimini yapmak icin nokta veya gelecek pazari farketmez cunku fiyatlari hemen hemen aynidir. |
| Expectations do influence the price, but they influence the spot price and, through it, the futures price. |
Beklentiler fiyati etkiler, fakat nokta fiyatini etkiler ve dolayisiyla gelecek kontratini. |
| They do not directly influence the futures price. |
Gelecek kontratini direk olarak etkilemezler. |
| According to the cost-of-carry model, the futures price is given by Futures price(Fp) = Spot Price(Sp) + Carry Cost(Cc) - Carry Return(Cr) (1) |
Tasima bedeli modeline gore, gelecek kontrati fiyati Gelecek fiyati (Fp) = Nokta fiyati (Sp) + Tasima bedeli (Cc) - Tasima geri donum (Cr) olarak hesaplanir. |
| Carry cost (CC) is the interest cost of holding the underlying asset (purchased in spot market) until the maturity of futures contract. |
Tasima ucreti (CC), gelecek kontrati olgunlasincaya kadar alt bedeli tutumunun faiz ucretidir (nokta pazarda alinmistir) |
| Carry return (CR) is the income (e.g., dividend) derived from underlying asset during holding period. |
Geri donum Tasima (CR) alt bedeli (spot marketinde satin alinmistir) tutumunun geliridir(ornegin hisse payi). |
| Thus, the futures price (F) should be equal to spot price (S) plus carry cost minus carry return. |
Boylelikle, gelecek kontrati fiyati (F) nokta fiyati (S) arti tasima gideri eksi geri donum tasimasi olmalidir. |
| If it is otherwise, there will be arbitrage opportunities as follows |
Eger oyle degilse, asagidaki gibi arbitrat olasiliklari olur. |
| When F > (S + CC - CR): Sell the (overpriced) futures contract, buy the underlying asset in spot market and carry it until the maturity of futures contract. |
Eger F > (S + CC - CR): Fazladan fiyatli gelecek kontratini sat, alt bedelini nokta pazarinda satin al ve gelecek kontrati olgunlasincaya kadar tut. |
| This is called "cash-and-carry" arbitrage. |
Buna "para - ve - tut" arbitraji denir. |
| When F < (S + CC - CR): Buy the (under priced) futures contract, short-sell the underlying asset in spot market and invest the proceeds of short-sale until the maturity of futures contract. |
Eger F < (S +CC - CR): Ucuzdan fiyatli gelecek kontratini satin al, alt bedelini nokta pazarinda borclu sat ve elde edilen gelirin gelecek kontrati olgunlasincaya kadar yatirimini yap. |
| This is called "reverse cash-and-carry" arbitrage. |
Buna "geri para - ve - tut" arbitraji denir. |
